Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair moved up all day without any hint of a correction on Thursday. We have formed a new trend line so that novice traders can clearly see the current trend. However, it is not recommended to use this trend line in trading. The slope is too high, so any correction or pullback will cause the price to settle below it. This will mean that the trend has changed to a downward trend, which in fact will not be the case. The illustration also shows two other trend lines (indicated by a dotted line), below which the price also fell, but each time the upward trend resumed. Thus, the current upward movement is strong and it can be worked out, since there is actually a trend. However, it is very difficult for novice traders to work it out, because the MACD indicator does not even have time to discharge to the zero level. Hence, there are strong delays in producing new buy signals. Therefore, novice traders need to decide for themselves whether they are ready to take high risks when opening any positions.
The European Union and America published indexes of business activity in the service sectors. However, given the fact that the euro kept on rising almost and continued to do so at night, the statistics probably did not matter to market participants. However, business activity in Europe remained low and it was high in the United States. The rest of the reports were even less relevant to the markets. More global themes for the euro and dollar are now available, but it seems that traders are ignoring them too. At least, there are still no visible reasons for the euro’s growth. And it could be any hypothesis as to why this happens. The fact remains: the euro has grown by 15 cents against the dollar over the past nine months
A rather important package of macroeconomic statistics will be published in America on Friday. Market participants will find out if unemployment continued to fall in November and how things are with the most important indicator of the state of the labor market, NonFarm Payrolls. In normal times, the latter indicator would have generated a strong market reaction almost unambiguously. But now… The “Friday factor” may also work tomorrow. After a fairly strong upward movement, market participants may want to take some of the profits and the pair may retreat. Nevertheless, you should not overlook the NonFarm Payrolls report. It can cause a reaction for the EUR/USD pair.
Possible scenarios for December 4:
1) Long positions remain relevant at the moment, but only because the upward trend is still present, which is clearly visible. However, it is extremely difficult to work out this trend now, since there is neither a trend line nor a channel to support it. Formally, you need to wait for a new round of correction and the MACD indicator to discharge to the zero level, and then look for new buy signals.
2) Trading down is not recommended at this time. Although the price crossed the ascending trend lines twice, the upward movement resumed and is still present. So far there is no reason to sell the euro, although the current levels may seem very attractive for selling.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
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